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Forecast Australia

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MODEL RUN
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24 HOURS OF RUNS
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ECMWF · MET OFFICE

What am I looking at?

Four global models, drawn here on the same colour scale so they can be read against one another. HRES is ECMWF's operational deterministic run on a 0.1 degree grid — about 11 km, rather than the 0.25 degree open-data grid most public sites draw — out to fifteen days. AIFS is ECMWF's machine-learning forecast, run operationally beside it. The Met Office Global at 10 km is a genuinely independent second opinion: it shares neither ECMWF's assimilation nor its physics, so where those two agree you have something. Wave carries significant wave height and swell, which on this coastline is not a marine footnote.

Switching model holds the valid time, not the forecast hour. The models run on different cycles and to different lengths, so +12 h on one is rarely +12 h on another — matching the instant instead means any difference you see between the tabs is a real disagreement between the models rather than an artefact of comparing two different moments.

Every model here is global, and Australia is drawn at each one's native resolution — the rasters are rendered at full model width, so the continent is sampled at the same 0.1 degrees the model actually computed rather than being upscaled from a regional crop. Zoom out and they keep going.

Fields are drawn straight from published model output with no smoothing and no rescaling — colour ramps are pinned to absolute values, so a loop shows real intensity changes rather than a palette re-fitting itself each frame. Temperatures are Celsius and winds km/h. This is raw model guidance, not a forecast: for warnings, watches and the official forecast, the Bureau of Meteorology is always the authority.